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Nifty 50 Pre-Open OI Data Analysis  February 10, 2025

Post Market Analysis (February 7, 2025)
The Nifty 50 index remained under pressure for the third consecutive session on February 7, closing 43 points lower amid heightened volatility. The 25 bps rate cut by the RBI was in line with expectations, but the index continued its lower tops-lower bottoms formation, signaling a weak short-term trend. Additionally, the Nifty 50 fell below the 200-day EMA (23,620), a crucial technical level. If the index fails to hold the 23,500-23,400 support zone, selling pressure may intensify. However, maintaining levels above this range could propel the index towards 23,800, a significant resistance level.
Technical Setup
Bearish Candlestick Formation: The Nifty 50 formed a bearish candlestick pattern with a minor upper shadow and a long lower shadow, indicating selling pressure at higher levels.
Moving Averages:
The index fell below the 50-day and 200-day EMAs, signaling weakness.
However, it remained above the 10-day and 20-day EMAs, offering near-term support.
The midline of the Bollinger Bands is acting as a key support level.
Weekly Trend: Despite the recent decline, the Nifty 50 gained 0.33% over the week and formed a bullish candle with a higher high-higher low formation, maintaining support at the 50-week EMA.
Market Sentiment
Put-Call Ratio (PCR): The Nifty PCR dropped to 0.83 on February 7 from 0.95 in the previous session, indicating a weakening bullish sentiment. A declining PCR suggests that more traders are selling Calls compared to Puts, signaling bearish momentum.
India VIX: The volatility index (India VIX) declined 3.46% to 13.69, staying in a lower range and providing some stability to bullish traders.
Pre-Open OI Data Analysis (February 10, 2025)
Maximum Call OI:
24,000 strike (84.13 lakh contracts) – Key resistance level
24,500 strike (82.92 lakh contracts)
23,800 strike (65.74 lakh contracts)
Maximum Call Writing:
24,000 strike (36.16 lakh contracts) – Strong resistance
23,800 strike (33.62 lakh contracts)
24,500 strike (33.37 lakh contracts)
Maximum Put OI:
22,600 strike (45.66 lakh contracts) – Key support level
23,000 strike (41.36 lakh contracts)
23,200 strike (39.6 lakh contracts)
Maximum Put Writing:
23,200 strike (25.77 lakh contracts) – Strong support
22,800 strike (18.09 lakh contracts)
22,700 strike (17.11 lakh contracts)
Market Spread, Resistance, and Support
Resistance Levels (Pivot Points):
23,662 (Immediate resistance)
23,721 (Medium-term resistance)
23,817 (Major resistance)
Support Levels (Pivot Points):
23,470 (Immediate support)
23,411 (Medium-term support)
23,315 (Major support)
Conclusion and Suggestions
The Nifty 50 remains in a short-term bearish trend, and a break below 23,400 could lead to further selling pressure.
The 23,800-24,000 zone remains a strong resistance area, with significant Call OI buildup at these levels.
On the downside, the 23,200-23,000 region provides strong support, backed by maximum Put writing.
If the index sustains above 23,500, a pullback towards 23,800 can be expected.
Traders should remain cautious, keeping an eye on open interest data and price action near key support and resistance levels.
Disclaimer
This report is for informational purposes only and should not be considered as financial advice. Traders and investors are advised to conduct their own research before making any trading decisions. The data presented is based on market trends and technical indicators, which are subject to change based on market dynamics.

Nifty 50 Pre-Open OI Data Analysis – February 11

Post-Market Analysis – February 10

The Nifty 50 continued its downtrend for the fourth consecutive session on February 10, closing 178 points lower. The index maintained a pattern of lower tops and lower bottoms for the third day but successfully defended the midline of the Bollinger Bands at the 23,300 zone.

Key observations:

  • Resistance Levels: 23,450-23,500, followed by 23,600 (200-day EMA).
  • Support Levels: 23,300 (midline of Bollinger Bands) and 23,200 (February 3 low).
  • The index closed at the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of 23,300 (from 22,787 low in January to 23,807 high in February), indicating a crucial support level.

Technical Setup

  • Bearish Candlestick Formation: The Nifty 50 formed a bearish candlestick pattern on the daily charts.
  • Bollinger Bands: The index is hovering around its midline, suggesting a crucial test for trend continuation.
  • Weekly Options Data:
    • Resistance: 24,000 strike (maximum Call OI: 1.22 crore contracts) followed by 24,500 (88.17 lakh contracts) and 23,700 (81.28 lakh contracts).
    • Support: 22,500 strike (maximum Put OI: 77.75 lakh contracts), followed by 22,800 (54.74 lakh contracts) and 22,700 (53.43 lakh contracts).
    • Call Writing: 24,000 strike (38.2 lakh contracts added), followed by 23,700 (34.77 lakh contracts) and 24,100 (33.21 lakh contracts).
    • Put Writing: 23,100 strike (27.04 lakh contracts added), followed by 22,800 (18.23 lakh contracts) and 23,400 (13.98 lakh contracts).

Market Sentiments

  • Put-Call Ratio (PCR): Dropped to 0.75 (previous: 0.83), indicating a shift towards bearish sentiment.
  • India VIX: Rose 5.55% to 14.44, signaling an increase in market volatility.
  • Market Outlook: Higher Call OI at 24,000 suggests strong resistance, while increased Put writing at 23,100 indicates short-term support.

Pre-Open OI Data Analysis – February 11

The pre-open session’s Open Interest (OI) data provides insights into market positioning:

  • Resistance Levels (Pivot Points): 23,519, 23,578, 23,674
  • Support Levels (Pivot Points): 23,326, 23,266, 23,170
  • Key Market Zone: 23,300 remains the crucial level to watch.

Market Spread

The market spread between highest Call and Put OI strikes suggests a wide range of 22,500 to 24,000, with potential fluctuations based on external triggers and global factors.

Conclusion & Recommendation

  • If Nifty sustains above 23,300, it may attempt a rebound towards 23,450-23,500 and eventually 23,600.
  • If Nifty breaks below 23,300, downside levels of 23,200 and 23,100 could be tested.
  • Traders should monitor PCR and India VIX movements to gauge sentiment shifts.
  • Risk-averse traders may consider hedging strategies or staying cautious until clear trend confirmation.
  • Short-term traders can look for intraday support/resistance opportunities around key levels.

Disclaimer

The information provided is based on market trends and data analysis. Traders and investors should conduct their own research before making any trading decisions. The analysis does not constitute financial advice.

NIFTY 50 PRE-OPEN OI DATA ANALYSIS – FEBRUARY 12

1. Post-Market Analysis (February 11)

Bears dominated the market on February 11, dragging the Nifty 50 decisively below the midline of the Bollinger Bands and breaching the February 3 low. The index plunged by 1.3% amid US tariff concerns, negating the higher highs-lower lows formation, which signals further weakness. The close below 23,000 would indicate an extended downside towards 22,800 (near the January low). However, a rebound could face resistance near 23,300.

Key Levels Based on Pivot Points:

  • Resistance Levels: 23,304, 23,399, and 23,553
  • Support Levels: 22,995, 22,900, and 22,746

Special Technical Formation:

  • A long bearish candlestick pattern formed on the daily chart.
  • Lower highs-lower lows continued for the fourth consecutive session.
  • RSI at 41 indicates weak momentum with a negative crossover.
  • MACD remains below the zero line, further confirming bearish momentum.

2. Technical Setup & Market Sentiment

The market witnessed a sharp sell-off with the Nifty breaking crucial support levels. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is nearing oversold territory, while the MACD remains in a bearish mode. The India VIX climbed 2.94% to 14.87, reflecting heightened volatility and nervousness in the market. The falling Put-Call Ratio (PCR) from 0.75 to 0.69 further confirms bearish sentiment.

Open Interest Data Highlights (February 11)

Call Side (Resistance Levels):

  • 24,000 strike holds maximum Call OI (1.6 crore contracts), indicating major resistance.
  • 23,800 strike (1.02 crore contracts) and 23,500 strike (99.08 lakh contracts) follow.
  • Significant Call writing at 23,300 strike (+55.84 lakh contracts), 23,400 strike (+39.67 lakh contracts), and 23,500 strike (+38.48 lakh contracts), indicating stiff resistance at these levels.
  • Maximum Call unwinding at 24,050 strike (-22.13 lakh contracts), 24,100 strike (-17.44 lakh contracts), and 24,150 strike (-9.3 lakh contracts).

Put Side (Support Levels):

  • 22,500 strike holds maximum Put OI (90.88 lakh contracts), acting as a strong support.
  • 22,700 strike (84.14 lakh contracts) and 22,800 strike (60.66 lakh contracts) follow.
  • Maximum Put writing at 22,700 strike (+30.7 lakh contracts), 22,500 strike (+13.12 lakh contracts), and 22,300 strike (+11.24 lakh contracts), indicating support at these levels.
  • Maximum Put unwinding at 23,400 strike (-18.21 lakh contracts), 22,400 strike (-13.78 lakh contracts), and 23,300 strike (-11.5 lakh contracts).

3. Pre-Open OI Data Analysis (February 12)

Pre-open Open Interest (OI) data will help gauge potential market direction:

  • Call Writing at 23,300 and 23,400 strikes suggests these levels will act as intraday resistance.
  • Put Writing at 22,500 and 22,700 strikes indicates immediate downside support.
  • PCR dropping to 0.69 confirms a bearish mood in the market.

4. Market Spread Analysis

  • Put-Call Ratio (PCR) at 0.69, declining from 0.75, signals increasing bearish sentiment.
  • India VIX at 14.87 (+2.94%) suggests rising volatility and increased fear in the market.

5. Conclusion and Recommendations

Key Observations:

  • Bearish sentiment dominates: The Nifty has breached key supports, and further downside is likely.
  • Resistance at 23,300 and 23,500: Traders should watch these levels for any recovery attempts.
  • Support at 22,500 and 22,700: Any break below 22,500 could extend the correction.

Recommendations for Traders:

  • For Bulls: Wait for a confirmed reversal above 23,300 before initiating long positions.
  • For Bears: Maintain a cautious short approach with stop-loss above 23,300.
  • For Options Traders: Bearish spreads like Bear Put Spread or Call Credit Spread may be favorable given the current weak setup.
  • Monitor India VIX: Rising volatility could lead to erratic movements, necessitating strict risk management.

6. Disclaimer

This report is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Investors should consult their financial advisors before making any trading decisions. The analysis is based on market data available at the time and is subject to change based on evolving market conditions.

Prepared by: Dr. A.K. Tyagi Date: February 12, 2025

Nifty 50 Pre-Open OI Data Analysis – February 13

1. Market Overview and Post Market Analysis – February 12

The Nifty 50 index exhibited a sharp recovery from the day’s low, which closely resembled January’s low. Despite this, the index extended its losing streak for the sixth consecutive session, closing 27 points lower at 22,973. The overall market trend remained bearish as Nifty continued to trade below all key moving averages, reflecting weak momentum.

A notable formation on the daily chart was the Long-Legged Doji candlestick pattern, though not a classical one, indicating indecision among buyers and sellers. Historically, this pattern often serves as a signal for potential trend reversals.

2. Technical Setup

  • Support Levels (Pivot Points): 22,864, 22,782, 22,650
  • Resistance Levels (Pivot Points): 23,128, 23,210, 23,342
  • Key Moving Averages: Nifty is trading below the 10-day, 20-day, 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day exponential moving averages (EMAs), suggesting an ongoing bearish bias.
  • Bollinger Bands: The index remains positioned in the lower band of Bollinger Bands, signaling a potential short-term reversal if support holds at 23,000.

3. Market Sentiment Analysis

  • Put-Call Ratio (PCR): Climbed to 0.75 from the previous session’s 0.69, suggesting a potential shift in sentiment as traders increased Put writing.
  • India VIX: Increased by 0.17% to 14.9, extending its uptrend for the third session, signaling higher volatility and caution for the bulls.

4. Pre-Open OI Data Analysis – February 13

  • Call Side Analysis:
  • Maximum Open Interest (OI) at 24,000 strike (1.36 crore contracts), indicating strong resistance.
  • Significant Call writing at 23,000 strike (33.3 lakh contracts), followed by 23,600 (27.49 lakh contracts) and 23,500 (22.9 lakh contracts).
  • Call unwinding at 23,900 (-25.75 lakh contracts), 24,000 (-24.14 lakh contracts), and 23,800 (-11.86 lakh contracts).
  • Put Side Analysis:
  • Maximum Open Interest at 22,500 strike (1.15 crore contracts), serving as key support.
  • Highest Put writing at 22,500 (24.38 lakh contracts), followed by 22,400 (18.81 lakh contracts) and 22,850 (17.46 lakh contracts).
  • Put unwinding at 23,200 (-9.87 lakh contracts), 23,100 (-7.99 lakh contracts), and 23,400 (-7.23 lakh contracts).

5. Market Spread & Resistance/Support Zones

  • Key Resistance Levels: 23,200-23,300 zone; if sustained above 23,000, Nifty could face resistance here.
  • Key Support Levels: 22,800 and 22,500, based on Put open interest concentration.
  • Overall Sentiment: Slightly bearish but showing signs of stabilization due to increased Put writing and a moderate rise in PCR.

6. Conclusion & Recommendations

  • Short-Term View: Cautiously bearish with a possibility of a rebound if 23,000 holds.
  • Trading Strategy:
  • Bullish Bias: Traders can initiate long positions if Nifty sustains above 23,000, with a target of 23,200-23,300.
  • Bearish Bias: A breakdown below 22,800 may accelerate selling pressure toward 22,500.
  • Volatility Watch: With India VIX rising, caution is advised for intraday traders.

7. Disclaimer

This report is for informational purposes only and should not be considered as financial or investment advice. Market conditions are subject to change, and traders should exercise due diligence before making any investment decisions.

Nifty 50 Pre-Open OI Data Analysis – February 14, 2025

Post Market Analysis – February 13, 2025

The Nifty 50 index extended its downtrend for the seventh consecutive session, failing to sustain its intraday rally due to a lack of strength at higher levels. A significant technical signal, the death crossover (where the 50-day EMA falls below the 200-day EMA), confirmed the strong presence of bears on Dalal Street. Experts continue to maintain a ‘sell on rally’ outlook for the market.

A decisive breach below 23,000 on a closing basis could trigger further downside towards 22,800-22,600, which includes Wednesday’s low and the June 6, 2024, low. On the upside, any bounce back would face immediate hurdles at 23,250-23,350.

Technical Setup

  • Candlestick Formation: A small-bodied bearish candlestick with a long upper shadow was formed on the daily chart, indicating weakness at higher levels.
  • Moving Averages: The index remained below all key moving averages (10, 20, 50, 100, and 200-day EMAs), reinforcing the bearish momentum.
  • Bollinger Bands: Nifty stayed in the lower band, suggesting continued downside pressure.
  • Momentum Indicators:
    • RSI: Stood at 40.17, indicating bearish sentiment.
    • MACD: Remained below the zero line with a negative crossover, confirming further downside risk.

Market Sentiment

  • Nifty Put-Call Ratio (PCR): Increased to 0.9 on February 13 from 0.75 in the previous session. This indicates rising bullish sentiment, as traders are selling more Put options than Calls.
  • India VIX: Climbed for the fourth consecutive session, up 0.4% to 14.96, keeping bulls on edge due to heightened market volatility.

Nifty 50 Pre-Open OI Data Analysis – February 14, 2025

  • Call Open Interest (OI):
    • 24,000 strike: 80.88 lakh contracts (Key Resistance)
    • 23,500 strike: 42.7 lakh contracts
    • 23,400 strike: 38 lakh contracts
    • Maximum Call Writing:
      • 24,000 strike: 55.13 lakh contracts
      • 23,400 strike: 29.55 lakh contracts
      • 23,200 strike: 25.04 lakh contracts
  • Put Open Interest (OI):
    • 22,400 strike: 33.53 lakh contracts (Key Support)
    • 22,500 strike: 32.28 lakh contracts
    • 22,200 strike: 30.98 lakh contracts
    • Maximum Put Writing:
      • 22,400 strike: 28.19 lakh contracts
      • 22,200 strike: 21.01 lakh contracts
      • 22,300 strike: 17.49 lakh contracts
  • Market Spread: There was no major Call unwinding or Put unwinding in the 22,200-24,100 strike band, indicating traders are holding onto their positions, awaiting further confirmation of market direction.

Resistance and Support Levels Based on Pivot Points

  • Resistance Levels: 23,179 | 23,237 | 23,330
  • Support Levels: 22,993 | 22,936 | 22,843

Conclusion and Recommendations

  • The market remains in a bearish zone with strong resistance at 23,250-23,350.
  • A decisive breakdown below 23,000 could lead to 22,800-22,600 in upcoming sessions.
  • The maximum Call OI at 24,000 signals strong resistance, while the maximum Put OI at 22,400 suggests key support.
  • Traders should maintain a cautious approach and consider selling on rallies until a clear reversal is confirmed.
  • Volatility remains high, so risk management is crucial for traders and investors.

Disclaimer

This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. Traders should conduct their own due diligence and consult with professional advisors before making any investment decisions.

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