Nifty 50 Pe-Open OI Data Analysis October 28
Post-Market Analysis – October 25
On October 25, the Nifty 50 closed on a weaker note, breaking below the crucial 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and firmly trading under the 24,200 mark. This breach resulted in a nearly 1% decline, achieving the first target of the Head and Shoulders formation. This bearish sentiment may persist, with projections indicating a potential downward trajectory towards the August low of 23,894, followed by the 200-day EMA at 23,455 in the sessions ahead. However, a possible rebound toward 25,650 (aligned with the 10-day EMA) could face renewed selling pressure, reinforcing a “sell on rally” approach as advisable.
Technical Setup – October 25
The Nifty 50 formed a bearish candlestick pattern, continuing the lower highs and lower lows trend for the fourth consecutive session, with trading volumes remaining above average. The index inched closer to the lower end of the Bollinger Band, while the 20-day EMA crossed below the 50-day EMA—a bearish indicator. Furthermore, the RSI (Relative Strength Index) fell below the 30 mark, confirming an oversold state. On a weekly scale, the Nifty declined 2.71%, forming a long bearish candle, marking the fourth straight week of lower highs and lower lows, which signals a prolonged bearish outlook.
Market Sentiment at Close – October 25
The market sentiment was decidedly cautious, with the Nifty 50’s downward trajectory and recent technical indicators pointing to continued selling pressure. The Put-Call Ratio (PCR) dropped to 0.87 from the previous session’s 1.00, reflecting a heightened bearish sentiment. An increase in PCR above 0.7 or close to 1.0 typically signals a bullish outlook, while a decline below 0.7, as observed, underscores a bearish mood in the market.
Pre-Open OI Data Analysis – October 28
The options data reveals significant open interest activity, indicating potential resistance and support zones. The maximum open interest on the Call side was seen at the 25,000 strike, with 1.08 crore contracts, marking it as a short-term resistance level. Following closely were the 24,500 and 25,500 strikes, with open interest volumes of 73.77 lakh and 73.72 lakh contracts, respectively. Maximum Call writing was noted at the 25,000 strike (adding 30.89 lakh contracts), indicating strong resistance, followed by the 24,300 and 24,200 strikes, with additions of 27.79 lakh and 21.8 lakh contracts, respectively. Minimal Call unwinding further affirms this resistance buildup.
On the Put side, the highest open interest was concentrated at the 23,000 strike with 77.22 lakh contracts, designating it as a significant support level. It was followed by the 23,500 and 24,000 strikes with 55.8 lakh and 49.74 lakh contracts, respectively. Maximum Put writing was seen at the 23,000 strike, adding 25.26 lakh contracts, which reinforces its support level. Unwinding activity in the 24,400, 24,500, and 24,300 strikes, shedding 17.99 lakh, 11.18 lakh, and 7.07 lakh contracts, respectively, further highlights a shift in support to lower levels.
Resistance and Support Levels
- Resistance (based on pivot points): 24,372, 24,458, and 24,598.
- Support (based on pivot points): 24,092, 24,005, and 23,865.
Conclusion and Recommendation
With the Nifty’s ongoing bearish formation of lower highs and lows, traders are advised to remain cautious. The RSI in oversold territory suggests a chance of brief pullbacks; however, these are expected to encounter strong resistance at higher levels, notably around 25,650. Adopting a “sell on rally” strategy is recommended, with close monitoring of the support levels, especially at the 23,000 strike, which holds the highest open interest on the Put side. A break below this level could potentially open further downside risks.
Disclaimer
This analysis is intended solely for informational purposes. Financial markets are subject to inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Please consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any trading decisions.
Nifty 50 Pre-Open OI Data Analysis – October 29, 2024
Post-Market Analysis – October 28, 2024
On October 28, the Nifty 50 rebounded by 0.65 percent, reflecting improved market sentiment following a substantial drop in the previous week. Despite this gain, the index remained below all short- to medium-term moving averages, which continues to signal a bearish trend. For sustained upward movement, the index must close above 24,500, which aligns closely with the 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA). Key support sits at the 24,000 level, where a break could likely escalate selling pressure.
The Nifty 50 formed a bullish candlestick pattern on the daily chart, exhibiting both upper and lower shadows—an indication of the volatility present in the index. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) also showed a minor rise from the oversold zone, though the overall bias remains negative, with Nifty trading below its 20, 50, and 100-day EMAs.
Technical Setup as of October 28 Closing
- Key Resistance Levels (based on pivot points): 24,459, 24,543, 24,680
- Key Support Levels (based on pivot points): 24,186, 24,101, 23,965
- Special Formation: Bullish candlestick with upper and lower shadows
- Momentum Indicator: RSI showed a slight uptick after entering oversold territory; trend remains negative
- Key Moving Averages: Below the 20, 50, and 100-day EMAs
Monthly Options Data Highlights: The 25,000 strike price holds maximum open interest, indicating strong resistance at this level. Additionally, the 24,500 strike holds the second-highest open interest, reinforcing the importance of this level as a short-term resistance.
- Maximum Call Writing: Seen at 24,800 strike (16.05 lakh contracts), followed by 24,500 (9.65 lakh) and 24,600 (6.82 lakh).
- Call Unwinding: Observed at the 24,300 strike (14.18 lakh contracts), with further unwinding at 24,200 and 25,500.
On the Put side, the 24,000 strike, with the highest open interest (74.02 lakh contracts), acts as a strong support level. Notably, the 24,000 strike also had the highest Put writing, reinforcing this as a critical support level.
- Put Writing: Highest at 24,000 strike (24.27 lakh contracts), followed by 24,200 and 24,300.
- Put Unwinding: Notable at 23,400 strike (5.39 lakh contracts).
Market Sentiment & Volatility
The Put-Call ratio (PCR) moved to 0.96, indicating a slight bullish sentiment as traders exhibited higher Put selling than Calls. Typically, a PCR above 0.7 or close to 1 reflects bullish sentiment, while values below 0.7 signal bearish sentiment.
Meanwhile, volatility, while decreasing, remains elevated, with the India VIX closing at 14.29—a 2.34 percent decline from the previous level of 14.63. Bulls may approach cautiously until VIX stabilizes below 13 to confirm lower volatility and support a potential bullish trend.
Pre-Open OI Data Analysis – October 29, 2024
Resistance Levels Based on OI Data:
- 25,000 – Maximum OI (1.05 crore contracts) acting as a major resistance
- 24,500 – Strong resistance (83.42 lakh contracts)
- 24,800 – Key resistance from additional Call writing
Support Levels Based on OI Data:
- 24,000 – Major support with significant open interest (74.02 lakh contracts)
- 23,500 – Secondary support level with considerable open interest (57.43 lakh contracts)
- 24,200 – Reinforces the support region with active Put writing
Conclusion & Recommendation
The Nifty 50 shows tentative signs of recovery, but the broader sentiment remains cautious due to trading below key moving averages. A sustained close above 24,500 is required for a positive shift, while a breach of 24,000 could reintroduce selling pressure.
With heightened open interest activity around the 24,000–24,500 range, traders should remain vigilant, particularly at these key levels. The bullish candlestick pattern and a rising PCR are positive indicators, but elevated volatility suggests that cautious optimism is warranted. Monitoring the India VIX and any significant movements in the 25,000 strike will be crucial for gauging market momentum in the short term.
Disclaimer
This analysis is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Market conditions can change rapidly, and investing in financial markets involves risk. Always consult a financial advisor or conduct your own research before making any investment decisions.
Nifty 50 Pre-Open OI Data Analysis October 30
Post-Market Analysis for October 29
The Nifty 50 extended gains for a second session, rising by 0.5%, though it remained within the previous day’s range and closed below the crucial 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 24,475. The banking sector was a primary contributor to this rally, reflecting strong buying interest, although the index faced resistance at the 24,500 level. To sustain further upward movement, the Nifty 50 must achieve a decisive close above this mark. Should the index successfully break 24,500, the next resistance levels will be 24,600-24,700, followed by a stronger resistance zone of 24,800-24,900. Conversely, support for the index is expected in the 24,100-24,000 range.
Technical Setup as of October 29
On the daily chart, the Nifty 50 formed a bullish candlestick with a notable lower shadow, suggesting buying interest at lower levels. This formation was supported by above-average trading volumes, indicating robust market participation. However, the index continues to trade below the 20-day, 50-day, and 100-day EMAs, signaling that it has yet to overcome significant short- and mid-term hurdles. The Relative Strength Index (RSI), a momentum indicator, displayed a positive crossover, which is typically a favorable signal for potential upward movement.
Resistance levels, based on pivot points, were marked at 24,495, 24,576, and 24,708. Support levels stood at 24,233, 24,152, and 24,020, aligning with current market expectations.
Market Sentiment at Close
The Nifty Put-Call ratio (PCR) rose to 1.02 on October 29, the highest level since September 27, indicating a shift towards bullish sentiment. This level suggests an increase in Put option selling relative to Calls, generally a positive sign for market strength. India VIX, which serves as a gauge of market volatility and investor fear, rose slightly by 1.57%, closing at 14.52. The VIX remains under the critical 15 mark, which experts consider an indication of lower perceived risk and an environment more favorable for buying.
Pre-Open Open Interest Data Analysis for October 30
| Pre-Open Nifty 50 OI Data October -30 | |||||
| Strike | Call Open Interest (OI) | Contracts | Strike | Put Open Interest (OI) | Contracts |
| 25,000 | Highest OI | 1.05 Cr | 24000 | Highest OI | 87.21 L |
| 25,500 | 74.88 L | 23500 | 64.68 L | ||
| 24,500 | 71.22 L | 24400 | 56.16 L | ||
| 24,700 | Maximum OI Writing | 15.5 L | 23700 | Maximum OI Writing | 14.57 L |
| 25,500 | 7.66 L | 24400 | 13.76 L | ||
| 25,100 | 5.64 L | 24000 | 13.19 L | ||
| 24,500 | Maximum Call Unwinding | 12.19 L | 23800 | Maximum Put Unwinding | 2.98 L |
| 24,400 | 9.5 L | 25000 | 1.23 L | ||
| 25,200 | 8.08 L | 24800 | .97 L | ||
Examining the monthly options data reveals significant open interest concentrations at various strike prices, which can act as key levels for traders. On the Call side, the 25,000 strike exhibited the highest open interest with 1.05 crore contracts, serving as a major resistance level in the short term. This was followed by the 25,500 strike (74.88 lakh contracts) and the 24,500 strike (71.22 lakh contracts).
Notably, maximum Call writing was observed at the 24,700 strike, with an addition of 15.5 lakh contracts, which reinforces resistance at that level. Additional Call writing was seen at the 25,500 and 25,100 strikes, which added 7.66 lakh and 5.64 lakh contracts, respectively. Conversely, Call unwinding was noted at the 24,500, 24,400, and 25,200 strikes, shedding 12.19 lakh, 9.5 lakh, and 8.08 lakh contracts, respectively, potentially softening resistance at these levels.
On the Put side, the 24,000 strike maintained the highest open interest at 87.21 lakh contracts, highlighting it as a crucial support level for the Nifty. It was followed by the 23,500 and 24,400 strikes, with 64.68 lakh and 56.16 lakh contracts, respectively. Maximum Put writing took place at the 23,700 strike (14.57 lakh contracts), with additional writing at the 24,400 and 24,000 strikes, adding 13.76 lakh and 13.19 lakh contracts, respectively. The 23,800 strike saw the highest Put unwinding, shedding 2.98 lakh contracts, followed by the 25,000 and 24,800 strikes, which lost 1.23 lakh and 97,500 contracts, respectively.
Resistance and Support Levels
- Immediate Resistance: 24,500, followed by 24,600-24,700 and 24,800-24,900 zones.
- Key Support: 24,100-24,000 range, with potential secondary support at 23,500.
Conclusion and Recommendations
The Nifty 50’s positive momentum and the bullish candlestick formation suggest favorable conditions in the short term, contingent on a close above the 24,500 mark. The Put-Call ratio of 1.02 indicates a firming bullish sentiment, while the VIX remains within a stable range. Traders may consider entering positions if the Nifty decisively breaks above 24,500 with an eye on the 24,700 and 24,900 resistance zones. However, caution is advised if the index falls below the 24,100 support level, as this may signal potential downside movement.
Disclaimer
This report is for informational purposes only and does not constitute trading advice. All investment and trading decisions should be based on personal assessment of the market and consultation with a financial advisor.
Nifty 50 Pre-Open OI Data Analysis October 31
Post-Market Analysis Report for October 30
The Nifty 50 index remained in a consolidative state ahead of the October 31 monthly expiry of Futures and Options (F&O) contracts, ending October 30 down by 0.5%, reflecting slight fatigue after a brief rally earlier in the week. Currently, the index has been oscillating within the range of 24,100 to 24,500 over the last week. A sustained breach above 24,500 could trigger fresh upward momentum, while a break below 24,100 may lead to heightened selling pressure, potentially dragging the index down toward 23,900.
Technical Setup
- Candlestick Formation: The Nifty 50 chart on October 30 reveals a small bearish candlestick pattern with a notable upper shadow, signaling rejection at higher levels. This indicates market hesitation near resistance, with selling pressure persisting as bulls struggle to maintain higher prices.
- Moving Averages: The Nifty remains below its 20-, 50-, and 100-day EMAs, underscoring a bearish and consolidative trend in the short term. On a weekly chart, the 20-week EMA stands as a crucial support level, and a move above this could provide bullish confirmation if sustained.
- Key Resistance and Support Levels:
- Resistance: Based on pivot points, the resistance levels are pegged at 24,455, 24,500, and 24,573. Additionally, the 24,500 zone holds significance in terms of open interest, reinforcing it as a strong hurdle for the bulls.
- Support: The support levels are identified at 24,309, 24,264, and 24,191.
Options Data Analysis (Pre-Open) for October 31
- Resistance (Call Side):
- The 25,000 strike remains the level with the maximum open interest (1.17 crore contracts), indicating strong resistance at this level.
- Substantial call writing has been seen at the 24,600 strike (adding 44.96 lakh contracts), as well as at the 24,500 and 24,400 strikes, which saw additional positions of 41.38 lakh and 30.46 lakh contracts, respectively.
- This indicates a firm bearish stance as sellers expect limited upside beyond these levels.
- Support (Put Side):
- The 24,000 strike carries the most open interest among puts (97.24 lakh contracts), suggesting this as a potential key support level.
- Additional support comes from the 23,500 strike (68.15 lakh contracts) and the 24,300 strike (66.04 lakh contracts).
- Fresh put writing at the 23,400, 24,300, and 24,100 strikes with additions of 23 lakh, 15.77 lakh, and 10.73 lakh contracts, respectively, further bolsters these levels as likely zones for stability.
Market Sentiment and Volatility
- Put-Call Ratio (PCR): The PCR dropped from 1.02 to 0.91 on October 30, suggesting a shift towards bearish sentiment. Generally, a PCR below 0.7 indicates elevated call selling, signaling caution from traders.
- Volatility: The India VIX rose sharply by 6.85% to 15.51, marking a two-and-a-half-month high. This heightened volatility introduces a layer of risk for bullish traders, warranting caution while the VIX sustains above the 15 level.
Conclusion and Recommendation
As of the October 30 close, the Nifty 50 is consolidating between 24,100 and 24,500. If it breaches 24,500 decisively, it could initiate an upward leg, though it may face further resistance near 24,600 and 24,700. Conversely, a dip below 24,100 could attract selling pressure with potential downside targets around 23,900.
- Recommendation: Caution is advised given the current volatility levels and bearish sentiment reflected by the PCR and bearish candlestick pattern. Traders might consider a neutral or cautious stance, focusing on short trades until a clear directional breakout is observed.
Disclaimer
This report is solely for informational purposes and does not constitute financial or investment advice. Readers should conduct their research and consult with their financial advisors before making investment decisions. Market conditions are inherently volatile, and past performance is not indicative of future results.