Nifty 50 Pre-Open OI Data Analysis October 14,2024
Post-Market Analysis: October 11, 2024
The Nifty 50 index continued its range-bound movement, closing flat for the third consecutive session on October 11. The market experienced a mix of buying and selling pressures, with Nifty struggling to break above its 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) of 25,050. At the same time, it defended the crucial support level of 24,900, indicating resilience. Volatility dropped significantly, suggesting a calm market environment compared to previous sessions. The session ended with a small bearish candlestick pattern on the daily charts, reflecting indecision and range-bound trade.
Technical Setup at the End of the Day
- Candlestick Formation: On the daily chart, the Nifty formed a small bearish candlestick pattern with minor upper and lower shadows, signaling a continuation of range-bound trading. The weekly chart depicted a bearish candlestick pattern with long upper and lower shadows resembling a “High Wave” pattern, indicating a possible reduction in selling pressure.
- Resistance and Support: Based on pivot points, the key resistance levels were 25,012, 25,038, and 25,080, while support levels stood at 24,930, 24,904, and 24,862.
- Exponential Moving Average: The Nifty failed to close above the 50-day EMA of 25,050. A decisive break above this level could lead to a potential upmove towards 25,200-25,300, while a break below 24,900 may trigger a further decline towards 24,700.
Sentiment of the Market
The overall market sentiment remained cautiously optimistic. Despite the struggles to breach the 50-day EMA, the Nifty’s ability to hold above the 24,900 support level, combined with a significant decline in volatility, provided bulls with a degree of comfort. The India VIX dropped to 13.22, down 2.04% from the previous day, reflecting reduced fear in the market. The Nifty Put-Call ratio (PCR) fell to 0.84 from 0.93 in the previous session, signaling a moderate shift toward a neutral to slightly bearish sentiment.
Open Interest (OI) Data Analysis for October 14, 2024
The OI data for the weekly options provided crucial insights into the resistance and support levels for the Nifty:
- Maximum Open Interest on the Call Side: The highest open interest was at the 26,000 strike (75.01 lakh contracts), followed by the 25,000 (57.84 lakh contracts) and 25,500 strikes (45.39 lakh contracts). This indicates that 26,000 is likely to act as a strong resistance level in the short term.
- Maximum Call Writing: Call writing was heaviest at the 26,000 strike (23.66 lakh contracts), followed by the 25,000 (18.44 lakh contracts) and 25,800 strikes (12.23 lakh contracts), further reinforcing 26,000 as a key resistance zone.
- Maximum Open Interest on the Put Side: The 25,000 strike held the highest OI on the Put side (49.66 lakh contracts), making it a crucial support level. This was followed by the 24,000 (42.79 lakh contracts) and 24,500 strikes (27.73 lakh contracts).
- Maximum Put Writing: The 24,000 strike saw the most Put writing (7.19 lakh contracts), followed by the 24,700 (7.09 lakh contracts) and 24,100 (7.08 lakh contracts) strikes, indicating strong support around these levels.
- Put Unwinding: Significant Put unwinding was seen at the 25,100 strike, which shed 2.15 lakh contracts, suggesting a reduction in bullish bets at that level.
Resistance and Support Levels for October 14, 2024
- Resistance: The Nifty is expected to face resistance at 25,012, 25,038, and 25,080, with 26,000 acting as a significant barrier based on OI data.
- Support: The index will find support at 24,930, 24,904, and 24,862, with 25,000 being a crucial psychological support level. A break below 24,900 could lead to extended selling pressure towards 24,700.
Conclusion and Recommendation
In conclusion, the Nifty 50 remains in a consolidation phase, with a flat close for the third consecutive session and strong support at 24,900. A decisive breakout above the 50-day EMA of 25,050 could trigger an upmove toward 25,200-25,300. However, failure to sustain above this level may result in continued range-bound movement or a breakdown towards 24,700. The decline in volatility suggests a potential reduction in selling pressure, providing bulls with an opportunity to regain control, but caution is warranted until the index shows a clear directional move.
Recommendation:
- Traders can consider buying above the 50-day EMA (25,050) for a potential upside towards 25,200-25,300.
- Maintain a strict stop-loss at 24,900 for long positions.
- If the index breaks below 24,900, short positions can be initiated, targeting 24,700.
Disclaimer:
This analysis is based on technical data and market indicators available as of October 11, 2024. The stock market is subject to risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Investors are advised to consult their financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
Nifty 50 Pre-Open OI Data Analysis: October 15, 2024
Nifty 50 Pre-Open OI Data Analysis: October 15, 2024
1. Post Market Overview October 14, 2024
On October 14, the market gained strength following a three-day consolidation period, with the Nifty 50 climbing 0.7%. The session was marked by a further decline in volatility, which contributed to the bullish sentiment. The Nifty 50 closed at 25,050, forming a bullish candlestick pattern on the daily charts and holding above its crucial 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA). The index’s ability to sustain above this level signals the potential for an upward move towards the 25,200-25,300 range, with a further extension to 25,500-25,600. Key support levels, however, remain at 24,800.
2. Technical Setup
- Formation: The Nifty 50 exhibited a higher high-higher low pattern and managed to close above the previous week’s high. This positive formation signals bullish momentum.
- Moving Averages: While the index climbed above the 50-day EMA, it is still trading below the 10-day and 20-day EMAs, indicating potential near-term resistance.
- Momentum Indicators: The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 46.54, suggesting an upward trajectory towards the 50 mark, which could further validate bullish momentum if crossed.
3. Market Sentiment
The market sentiment is largely bullish, as reflected by key indicators:
- Put-Call Ratio (PCR): The Nifty Put-Call ratio rose to 0.9 from the previous session’s 0.84, signaling an increase in Put selling compared to Call options. This is generally a bullish indicator as traders expect the market to move higher.
- Volatility: The India VIX, a key measure of market fear, fell by 1.7% to 13. This low level of volatility supports a favorable environment for bulls.
4. Pre-Open OI Data Analysis October 15, 2024
- Call Options: The 26,000 strike holds the highest open interest at 65.23 lakh contracts, indicating strong resistance at this level. It is followed by the 25,500 (52.67 lakh contracts) and 25,200 (44.88 lakh contracts) strikes. Maximum Call writing was observed at the 25,400 strike, suggesting near-term resistance at this level.
- Put Options: On the Put side, the 25,000 strike has the highest open interest at 66.26 lakh contracts, providing key support. It is followed by the 24,000 and 24,500 strikes. Significant Put writing at the 25,100 strike adds further support to the bullish sentiment.
5. Resistance and Support Levels
Based on pivot points, the resistance and support levels are as follows:
- Resistance: 25,156, 25,190, and 25,244
- Support: 25,047, 25,014, and 24,959
The Nifty’s movement suggests that as long as it sustains above 25,050, an upward rally towards 25,200-25,300 is likely. A break below 24,800, however, could invite further downside pressure.
6. Conclusion and Recommendation
The overall market outlook remains positive, with the Nifty 50 poised for further gains. A bullish technical setup, low volatility, and supportive Put-Call ratios all point towards a potential rally in the coming sessions. Traders are advised to watch the 25,200-25,300 zone for upward targets, while keeping an eye on the key support level of 24,800 for downside protection.
Recommendations:
- For Short-Term Traders: Hold long positions as long as the index stays above 25,050. A breakout above 25,200 could see the index test 25,300 and 25,500 levels.
- For Conservative Investors: Maintain positions with a stop-loss at 24,800 to protect against sudden market reversals.
7. Disclaimer
This report is based on technical analysis and market observations. All investment decisions should be taken with caution, considering the inherent risks involved in the financial markets. Past performance is not indicative of future results, and this report does not constitute financial advice. Readers are advised to consult with professional financial advisors before making any trading or investment decisions.
Nifty 50 Pre-Open OI Data Analysis October 16
Nifty 50: Post-Market Report for October 15
Market Overview:
On October 15, the Nifty 50 reversed some of its previous session’s gains, closing 0.3% lower. Despite this correction, the index managed to defend the crucial 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) while continuing the formation of higher highs. Volatility remained subdued but slightly increased, indicating cautious optimism in the market. The Nifty hovered near its immediate support levels, which continue to be key zones for short-term market direction.
Technical Setup:
The Nifty formed a bearish candlestick pattern on the daily timeframe, encountering resistance at both the 10-day and 20-day EMAs. The index also exhibited an ascending triangle pattern, which typically signals a bullish trend if the upper horizontal trendline is broken on rising volume. This setup suggests that while the current market sentiment is cautious, there is potential for a strong upside if key resistance levels are breached.
Resistance Levels:
- Based on pivot points, immediate resistance for the Nifty is identified at:
25,170 (first resistance), 25,219 (second resistance), 25,296 (third resistance)
These levels are significant hurdles that the Nifty will have to clear before any sustained rally can take place.
Support Levels:
- Support zones based on pivot points are seen at: 25,015 (first support), 24,967 (second support), 24,889 (third support)
The 25,000 level remains crucial as immediate support, followed by the 24,900 zone. A break below these levels could lead to further downside.
Pre-Open OI Data Analysis:
The weekly options data highlights key zones of interest:
- Maximum Call Open Interest (OI) is seen at the 25,200 strike with 87.09 lakh contracts, followed by the 26,000 and 25,500 strikes with 78.72 lakh and 69.93 lakh contracts, respectively. This indicates that 25,200 will serve as a significant resistance in the near term.
- Maximum Put Open Interest (OI) is at the 25,000 strike with 59.12 lakh contracts, serving as a strong support level. Below that, the 24,000 and 24,500 strikes also have high OI, indicating potential support zones.
Call and Put Writing:
- Call Writing: Heavy Call writing was seen at the 25,200 strike (42.21 lakh contracts added), indicating a strong resistance. Significant additions were also observed at the 25,100 and 25,500 strikes.
- Put Writing: The 24,500 strike saw maximum Put writing (7.82 lakh contracts added), followed by additions at the 24,400 and 24,600 strikes. This reinforces the notion of 24,500 being a key support level.
- Put Unwinding: Notably, there was Put unwinding at the 25,000 strike, shedding 7.13 lakh contracts, signaling reduced confidence in this level holding as firm support in the immediate term.
Market Sentiment:
- Put-Call Ratio (PCR): The PCR dropped to 0.77 from 0.9 on the previous trading day, reflecting a mild shift towards bearish sentiment. A ratio closer to 1 generally indicates market optimism, while a lower ratio (below 0.7) can signal a more bearish tone. The current level suggests caution, with traders waiting for a clearer direction.
- Volatility (India VIX): The volatility index (VIX) increased slightly, rising by 0.06% to 13. A VIX level this low generally indicates that fear in the market remains controlled, keeping bulls in a relatively comfortable position despite the day’s negative close.
Conclusion and Recommendations:
The Nifty 50 is currently in a phase of consolidation, with immediate resistance around the 25,200-25,250 zone. A break above this level with strong volume could pave the way for a further rally, potentially testing the 25,500-26,000 range. However, until that breakout occurs, the index is likely to remain range-bound, with 25,000 and 24,900 serving as key support levels.
Recommendation:
- For Traders: Focus on the 25,200 level as the pivotal resistance. Any breakout above this could trigger fresh buying opportunities, while dips towards 25,000 may offer a chance to initiate long positions.
- For Short-Term Investors: Maintain a cautious approach, as the market may continue consolidating before making a decisive move. Consider adding to positions on dips near support levels.
Disclaimer:
The above report is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Market conditions are subject to change, and it is advisable to consult a financial expert or investment advisor before making any trading or investment decisions.
Nifty 50 Pre-Open OI Data Analysis – October 17, 2024
1. Post-Market Analysis (October 16, 2024)
The Indian equity market extended its downward trend in a rangebound session on October 16. The Nifty 50 index fell by 86 points, closing below the crucial 25,000 mark at 24,975. The index has been trading within the range of 24,900 to 25,200 for the past six sessions. A clearer directional movement is awaited, as the market needs to decisively breach either side of this trading range.
- Key levels:
Support: 24,900 level was defended both on an intraday and closing basis.
Resistance: Nifty failed to sustain above the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), indicating persistent bearish pressure.
The session saw the formation of a small bearish candle with shadows on both sides, highlighting indecision and rangebound trading activity. Volumes remained below average for the sixth consecutive session, suggesting that there is no strong conviction among market participants at the moment.
2. Technical Setup (October 16, 2024)
The technical chart shows that Nifty is struggling to break past its resistance levels, but it is managing to hold key support levels.
Resistance based on Pivot Points: 25,062, 25,105, 25,176
Support based on Pivot Points: 24,920, 24,877, 24,806
On the daily timeframe, Nifty is unable to break above the 50-day EMA, which reflects ongoing weakness in momentum. However, volatility remains subdued, favoring the bulls for a potential recovery. The India VIX, or the fear index, rose marginally by 0.38% to 13.05, indicating limited market anxiety.
3. Market Sentiment at Closing (October 16, 2024)
Market sentiment at the close of the session on October 16 remained neutral to bearish. The Put-Call Ratio (PCR) dropped slightly from 0.77 to 0.74, signaling a shift toward a bearish outlook. A fall in PCR indicates increased call writing compared to put writing, further showing that traders expect the market to remain under pressure in the short term.
On the options front:
- Maximum Call OI (Open Interest): 25,500 strike, with 1.15 crore contracts, suggests this level will act as a strong resistance going into the weekly expiry.
- Maximum Put OI: 24,500 strike, with 62.88 lakh contracts, indicates solid support around this level.
4. Pre-Open OI Data Analysis (October 17, 2024)
- Call Writing: The 25,500 strike added 45.89 lakh contracts, confirming strong resistance at this level. Other notable strikes were 25,000 (33.18 lakh) and 25,400 (24.82 lakh).
- Put Writing: The 24,800 strike saw significant Put writing, adding 26.6 lakh contracts, suggesting this level as immediate support. Other key Put levels were 24,300 (22.74 lakh) and 24,500 (15.3 lakh).
Based on the pre-open options data for October 17, traders should watch out for a break above 25,200 for potential bullish momentum towards 25,400, while any breach below 24,900 could push the Nifty towards 24,800-24,700.
5. Resistance and Support Levels (October 17, 2024)
Resistance Levels: 25,062 (Immediate resistance), 25,105 (Next resistance), 25,176 (Strong resistance)
Support Levels: 24,920 (Immediate support), 24,877 (Next support), 24,806 (Strong support)
6. Conclusion and Recommendations
- Short-Term Outlook: The market continues to consolidate within a range of 24,900 to 25,200. A decisive breakout on either side is required for a clear trend direction.
- Upside Move: If the Nifty breaks above 25,200, it could head towards the 25,400 mark.
- Downside Risk: A fall below 24,900 could result in further declines towards the 24,700-24,800 zone.
- Recommendations:
- Traders should adopt a cautious approach until there is a clear breakout from the current range.
- For intraday trades, monitor the pivot levels closely. Above 25,062, bulls may gain control, while below 24,920, bears might take the lead.
- Options traders can look at the maximum OI levels to gauge potential support and resistance for the week.
7. Disclaimer
The analysis provided is based on historical market data and technical indicators as of October 16, 2024. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Market conditions may change, and it is advised to consult with a financial advisor before making any investment decisions. The Nifty 50 is subject to risks, including volatility, market sentiment, and broader economic factors. This report is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice.
Nifty 50 Pre-Open OI Data Analysis October 18, 2024
1. Overview of the Market Performance:
On October 17, 2024, the bears took firm control of the Indian equity markets, with the benchmark indices witnessing a sharp decline amid a volatile quarterly earnings season. The Nifty 50 plummeted by 221 points, closing at 24,750, nearing the previous week’s low. This downward move was driven by the breakdown of the support trendline and a Bearish Flag pattern formation on the daily charts, intensifying the bearish sentiment.
The broader market reflected similar weakness, with significant selling pressure across sectors, particularly in banking, financials, and IT stocks. The heightened nervousness is evident as the Nifty 50’s downward breach of critical support levels could trigger further downside.
2. Technical Setup at the End of the Day (EOD):
- Key Levels:
Immediate Resistance Zones: 24,800 – 25,000 (nearby pivot resistance levels).
Key Support Levels: 24,700 (previous week’s low) and 24,550 (20-week EMA).
The Nifty 50’s sharp drop resulted in a long bearish candlestick on the daily charts, breaking both an upward-sloping trendline and the Bearish Flag pattern. This suggests a continuation of the downward momentum.
- Momentum Indicators:
RSI (Relative Strength Index): Exhibits a downward bias, reflecting bearish momentum.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Also remains in negative territory, confirming the short-term negative sentiment.
The Nifty appears to be heading toward testing the 24,700 support level. A decisive break below this can open doors for further downside towards 24,550. However, in case of a recovery, the immediate resistance zone stands at 24,800-25,000.
3. Nifty Sentiment at Market Close:
The sentiment at the close of the market on October 17 leaned bearish, with the technical outlook signaling more downside risk. The market participants are cautious, as evident from the breakdown of major technical patterns and the breach of crucial support levels.
- Volatility: India VIX, often referred to as the “fear gauge,” increased by 2.57%, closing at 13.39. This marked the third consecutive session of rising volatility, indicating higher uncertainty among traders.
- Put-Call Ratio (PCR): The Nifty PCR rose to 0.88 from 0.74 in the previous session, indicating an increase in Put option selling relative to Calls. A rising PCR typically signals a potential bullish reversal, as traders position for a bottoming-out scenario. However, the overall sentiment remains cautious.
4. Pre-Open OI Data Analysis for October 18, 2024:
The weekly options data as of the pre-open session on October 18 provides insights into the market’s positioning:
- Maximum Open Interest (OI):
On the Call side, the 24,800 strike had the highest OI (1.89 crore contracts), followed by the 25,500 and 25,000 strikes. This suggests that 24,800 could serve as a significant resistance level in the near term.
On the Put side, the 24,700 strike saw the maximum OI (95.24 lakh contracts), indicating strong support around this level. Other notable support zones were seen at the 24,500 and 24,600 strikes.
- Call Writing: Heavy call writing was observed at the 24,800 strike, adding 1.82 crore contracts. Additional call writing was seen at the 25,000 and 24,900 strikes, suggesting strong resistance in the 24,800–25,000 range.
- Put Writing: Significant put writing was observed at the 24,700 strike, which saw an addition of 56.4 lakh contracts, reinforcing this level as crucial support.
- Put-Call Unwinding: Call unwinding was observed at the 26,000 and 25,200 strikes, while Put unwinding was prominent at the 25,000 strike, indicating that traders are adjusting positions ahead of crucial support and resistance levels.
5. Resistance and Support Levels Based on Pivot Points:
Resistance Levels: R1: 24,951, R2: 25,022, R3: 25,137
Support Levels: S1: 24,721, S2: 24,650, S3: 24,535
Given the current setup, the Nifty 50 needs to hold the 24,700 level to avoid further downside, with 24,550 emerging as the next significant support level. On the upside, a decisive break above 24,800 may push the index towards the 25,000 mark.
6. Conclusion and Recommendations:
- For Bulls: A rebound from 24,700 could provide an opportunity for traders to enter the market with a potential target of 24,800–25,000. However, cautious positioning is advised, as the market sentiment remains weak.
- For Bears: A break below 24,700 could signal further downside toward 24,550, offering shorting opportunities. Momentum remains negative, and traders should look for weakness in key sectors like banking and IT.
- Risk Management: Given the rising volatility, traders should maintain strict stop-loss levels to manage risks effectively.
7. Disclaimer:
The above analysis is based on technical indicators, historical data, and market trends. Market conditions are subject to change, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Please consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any trading decisions. The author is not responsible for any financial losses that may occur based on this report.